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Judgment under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases ePUB

The thirty five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce not only in laboratory experiments but in important social medical and political situations as well Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics problems in judging covariation and control overconfidence multistage inference social perception medical diagnosis risk perception and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles the remaining chapters are newly written for this book Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them


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    I read this book because it and Gödel Escher Bach were mentioned in the same breath in Eliezer Yudkowsky's incomparable Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality With an endorsement like that how could I resist at least taking a look?My development as a scientist and rationalist has been intertwined in some unlikely ways with the Harry Potter phenomenon I first encountered game theory about eight years ago in a book called The Science of Harry Potter Expounding the famous Prisoner's Dilemma the author replaced the traditional prison sentences in the cost benefit matrix with losses of House points instead of anonymous prisoners the actors in the drama were none other than Harry and Draco improbably compelled to illustrate a lesson from Econ 101I was intrigued but unaware of the vastness of the field I had glimpsed or of the broader edifice of rationalism I looked into the subject no further There were plenty of other interesting things to learn not to mention that I stopped reading the above mentioned book when I ran across the section on sleep paralysis and couldn't sleep with the lights off for weeks Thankfully I've only experienced the phenomenon once Once was enoughFast forward to 2012 the year during which I ran across Yudkowsky's Methods an improbably brilliant reimagining of the Harry Potter universe in which Harry is required at every turn to make use of the methods he used only in isolated illustrative cases in The Science of Harry Potter My dormant interest in game and decision theory was reawakened and Eliezer Yudkowsky who for me has ascended into the pantheon had the book recommendations to get me started on the path Judgment Under Uncertainty topped the listAnd so it should have If there's anyone who needs to be aware of cognitive biases it's everyone No one is immune and I can't imagine beginning to understand cognitive science without a basic if only abstract grasp of the ways in which under circumstances of partial ignorance perception itself can be the source of systematic errors Psychologists statisticians and decision theorists will recognize circumstances of partial ignorance as essentially all circumstancesSo reading this book felt in a way like coming full circle Kahneman and his collaborators have made their statement have written their Critique as for me I've been shown yet another road to becoming a consistent scientist which is to say a rationalist and humanist as well Nihil supernum